Welcome Everyone to the Nineteenth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• Bitcoin 2024 is happening and Trump concluded his speech on the future of Bitcoin for the USA. 🇺🇸

• Ether ETFs went live this week. However, received a different reception to the BTC ETFs 💸.

• Consolidation continues in the market as we await the next breakout of new ATHs and above.

💡 Watch the latest market breakdown video alongside Chronicles for the full analysis!

Ether ETFs went live and BTC tested its prior ATH from 2022 🚀

Ether is setup to outperform BTC over the next stage of the cycle with the launch of the Ethereum ETFs. Check out the latest market breakdown where I analyse crypto and set the expectations for the week ahead.

Watch the video now!

Sentiment Analysis 🧐

We saw sentiment shift from Greed to Neutral territory during the week, with it returning back to Greed as we saw the rally back up to $70,000 on Bitcoin.

We started the week off at 64, dipped to 59, and ended at 62. Sentiment remained rather stable during this move and traders are anticipating a breakout from this long consolidation phase before Extreme Greed or Extreme Fear is met in this market once again.

Right now, sentiment has been reset after the bullish impulse post ETF approval and the run from $40,000 to $74,000. The over-exuberant traders have been flushed out of the market and we are ready to see further upside price action and Extreme Greed levels to return near the next peak. This has been a painful and choppy sideways consolidation zone, however, sentiment has held up well and rarely dipped back into Fear levels.

As we’ve seen the market ‘reset’ itself, I still believe we are currently in the ‘Hope’ phase of this new mini Market Cycle that has just kicked off since the dip and spring off $60,000, and in the “Optimism” phase of the longer term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow-moving indicator, and may not change week to week. We peaked for a few days in Euphoria in March and since the sell-off, we’ve seen accumulation and some short squeeze back to the highs, providing a chance for participants to build larger positions before the next run occurs (100k+).

Everything has been playing out per prior DOSES, and we are expected to be on the verge of another BTC breakout that will accelerate prices to new ATHs and beyond. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

This week we saw more signs of strength (SOS) from Bitcoin as it exited Phase C and the ‘Spring’ phase of the accumulation range and entered Phase D.

I’ve been keeping track of this pattern in particular as it matches almost 1:1 with the Wyckoff Accumulation range that institutional investors follow to get positioned in thinly traded markets. As the BTC ETFs have just launched, institutional investors are positioning in these products and this is why we are getting these advanced trading patterns starting to form.

Bitcoin saw a rally this week that tagged the prior ATH at $69,000 which has continued to be met with sellers. This follows a ‘Spring’ off the lows of $54,000 and gives a strong indication that the bottom is in for this consolidation/correction and the price is now in the very early stages of the next bullish impulse to the upside.

Caution has to be taken prior to the breakout as large CME gaps have formed on the futures chart and are likely to be filled before we see the next impulse higher in Bitcoin. This can see a very short-term dip to $58,000; however, I still expect the major $60,000 support level to be held. There is a chance we break out and move straight for $100k from these levels, however, I will trade the breakout move with confirmation so as to not get trapped buying range highs when there is still the possibility of a downside dip to fill these gaps.

How I’ve been trading this price action: Don’t overcomplicate it.

Since I sold out of excessive positions when BTC was in Euphoria I’ve since been Dollar Cost Averaging back into quality projects slowly as I didn’t want to be caught out by a long consolidation period as we have seen. During this phase, I don’t want to overcomplicate things and get trapped being long/short as accumulations are unpredictable for short-term traders. My positions are well-sized and ready for the next move higher and if we see a final dip in the market (to fill the CME gaps formed on the spring breakout), I’ll add to my positions and be confident in the upside unless there’s a significant change in market structure.

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ethereum diverged from BTC this week as we saw the ETF launch occur and the spot products start trading which caused volatility in Ethereum.

Above is a Daily chart of Ethereum mapping the most recent rumors, price action, and breakouts. Ether rallied hard on rumors of the ETF being announced, retraced, and faded the whole move to take out all bullish positions that got in on the rumors. Then rallied from the lows into the announcement, before selling off again and retesting the counter-trendline as the ETFs launched this week.

The extra selling pressure from the Grayscale funds was what caused Ether to fail to rally with BTC as it went to $69,000. As of now, the price is still holding support and the retest of the counter-trendline.

I do believe this is short-term selling pressure introduced to the market due to Grayscale. Once the selling subsides, then positive flows into the ETF products can start to have an impact on the Ethereum price and it could be setting up for a similar move that BTC did with a rapid run back to the ATH and more. Once the run starts, I’m expecting ETH to outperform BTC for the remainder of the cycle and Altcoins should get a massive surge of liquidity when ETH starts to make the run to its prior ATH.

We’re going to have to watch the market carefully and trade-off key levels to capture the full extent of this move. Ethereum is going to be reactionary to news, so leveraged positions must be taken with caution and we will have to anticipate rather than be reactionary to price action and the announcements.

ETH is going to be my signal for Altcoin's strengths/weaknesses and determine my positioning in the market. Short-term opportunities are ripe and I aim to lock in extra gains that I can add to my long-term accumulation.

For now, I expect further surges in Altcoins off the back of Ether's strength and am paying attention to strong Altcoins to catch these moves (SOL, RNDR, potentially MEMES).

Hope you have a safe and profitable trading week! As always, day-by-day updates are provided in the Discord that you can find at the bottom of this DOSE!

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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