Welcome Everyone to the Eighteenth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• Chronicles is back after a short break. 🥳

• Bitcoin and Ether have seen consolidation over the last couple of months as sentiment resets and we prepare for the next stage of the cycle. 🚀💰

• A Wyckoff accumulation pattern is in play on BTC. With the most recent move confirming a ‘spring’ and sending price into the next ‘Phase D’. 💸Market Sentiment 🧠

💡 Watch the latest market breakdown video alongside Chronicles for the full analysis!

Ether is on the brink of breaking out to new ATHs 🚀

With the most recent market reset and rumors of an ETH ETF amounting, Ethereum is on the verge of breaking out to new ATHs and outperforming BTC as we head into the next stage of the cycle…

Watch the video now!

Sentiment Analysis 🧐

Since seeing Extreme Greed levels, the market has been ‘resetting’ itself and coming back to fair value and sentiment levels to create healthier market conditions.

In crypto, and financial markets in general, prices never just rise indefinitely. Some phases drift between Greed and Fear, in which traders and investors can distribute and accumulate positions based on herd psychology and sentiment.

This is why we track sentiment first and foremost because it’s a barometer of the market and can tell us if we are in an excessive period, or whether we’re in a fearful state.

During the first drop, the BTC price corrected and fell to the $60,000 major support level. Sentiment flipped from Extreme Greed to slight Fear at the 43 level. Then we mostly saw Greedy conditions on the bounce in May before seeing Fear again as the price returned to $60,000 and this time we peaked at a reading of 24 - nearing Extreme Fear levels.

Right now, sentiment has returned to Greed and is now sitting around the 74 level. This indicates there is still a bias towards bulls however, it is at a much healthier level compared to the last time the price was trading at $66,000.

During this corrective period, we saw slight capitulation in short-term traders with the dips to $60,000. The majority of large holders are remaining patient and letting the market reset without touching their bags, however, more short-term and emotional traders who don’t have the same patience have been selling positions which have been absorbed by the larger participants.

As we’ve seen the market ‘reset’ itself, I still believe we are currently in the ‘Hope’ phase of this new mini Market Cycle that has just kicked off since the dip and spring off $60,000, and in the “Optimism” phase of the longer term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow-moving indicator, and may not change week to week. We peaked for a few days in Euphoria in March and since the sell-off, we’ve seen accumulation and some short squeeze back to the highs, providing a chance for participants to build larger positions before the next run occurs (100k+).

Everything has been playing out per prior DOSES, and we are expected to be on the verge of another BTC breakout that will accelerate prices to new ATHs and beyond. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

Since this has been the second longest consolidation/corrective period in this bull run, the longer-term picture hasn’t changed that much. Except, for the fact that on this latest breakout, we’ve transitioned out of the corrective phase and into a new expansion area.

BTC spent 124 days in consolidation below the prior ATH at $69,000. This was expected behavior considering how we know how Bitcoin reacts around its 4-year halving event and the state of sentiment that the market was at when it made its prior surge to new ATHs.

During this correction, the market started to form an ABC pattern, which then turned into a Wyckoff accumulation pattern as the price came down to $60,000 one final time and formed a ‘spring’ at the low. This shows the significant demand there is for Bitcoin below $60,000 and it’s likely to remain strong support for the foreseeable future.

Seeing as the BTC ETFs launched and immediately surged 90%, there was never a chance for institutional investors to get positioned in the products and begin to ride the next stages of the bull cycle. Wyckoff accumulation/distributions are advanced patterns that only occur when there’s institutional involvement in a market. Right now, price has formed another one of these, and institutions are positioned well in the new ETF products and ready for the next expansionary phase to occur that will occur shortly.

How I’ve been trading this price action: Don’t overcomplicate it.

Since I sold out of excessive positions when BTC was in Euphoria I’ve since been Dollar Cost Averaging back into quality projects slowly as I didn’t want to be caught out by a long consolidation period as we have seen. During this phase, I don’t want to overcomplicate things and get trapped being long/short as accumulations are unpredictable for short-term traders. My positions are well-sized and ready for the next move higher and if we see a final dip in the market (to fill the CME gaps formed on the spring breakout), I’ll add to my positions and be confident in the upside unless there’s a significant change in market structure.

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ethereum followed a similar correction to BTC and found major support at the $3,000 level.

This maintained price during the correction where we saw an impulsive move higher on rumors that an Ethereum ETF would be launched within the next few weeks similar to how the BTC ETFs were created. This spiked the price to $3,900 which failed to be maintained. As BTC made its second move lower in the correction, this also pushed ETH lower and back to the $3,000 support which was met with buyers once again.

This impulsive move and subsequent fade shows there’s still interest in the Ethereum market and traders aren’t well positioned for the release of the Ethereum ETF. As we’ve seen the washout from the short-term (and leveraged) traders, there’s a unique opportunity to trade the announcement and release as a continued breakout move above $4,000 sets Ether up to test its prior ATH at $4,800.

We’re going to have to watch the market carefully and trade-off key levels to capture the full extent of this move. Ethereum is going to be reactionary to news, so leveraged positions must be taken with caution and we will have to anticipate rather than be reactionary to price action and the announcements.

ETH is going to be my signal for Altcoin's strengths/weaknesses and determine my positioning in the market. Short-term opportunities are ripe and I aim to lock in extra gains that I can add to my long-term accumulation.

For now, I expect further surges in Altcoins off the back of Ether's strength and am paying attention to strong Altcoins to catch these moves (SOL, RNDR, potentially MEMES).

Hope you have a safe and profitable trading week! As always, day-by-day updates are provided in the Discord which you can find at the bottom of this DOSE!

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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