Welcome Everyone to the Seventeenth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• Bitcoin pulls back to $61,000 USD as inflows weaken to the new spot ETFs. 📉

• Altcoins see consolidation and bull trap patterns as BTC sucks the liquidity out of the Altcoin market. 🐻🔪

• Sentiment resets and we return to 70 levels with price now hovering just above $67,000 USD. 💸

Market Sentiment 🧠

Since we saw Extreme Greed levels above the 90 level, sentiment and price have since cooled off forming a small correction and resetting sentiment levels back into ‘Greed’ and into the 70 region.

As the price approached USD 60,000 again and we began trading more defensively below the prior ATH, sentiment reset back to 70 and remains elevated alongside the price. Since we have seen Euphoria, it’s possible we can start to enter a corrective phase before the next run into a high six-figure Bitcoin.

However, this corrective phase may end up as a form of sideways consolidation and accumulation if BTC ETF flows remain strong and short-term traders sell into the hands of long-term holders. Either situation will allow sentiment to reset, reach ‘Fear’ levels, and provide opportunities to enter the market at optimal prices while the majority panic or get chopped up in the price action.

Right now it’s best to focus on short-term trades and consistently realizing gains so you don’t get caught when the tide turns to Fear. Altcoins have significantly less liquidity than BTC and can be harder to exit positions when everyone is exiting positions and the price is being marked down at a rapid rate.

I still believe we are currently in the ‘Euphoria/Complacency’ phase of this new Market Cycle that started last year, and in the “Disbelief” phase of the longer-term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow-moving indicator, and may not change week to week. We peaked for a few days in Euphoria during the ETF announcement but since the sell-off, we’ve seen a continued short squeeze back to the highs, providing another opportunity to sell and letting the average investors be complacent/wait for higher prices which aren’t likely to happen just yet (100k+).

This indicates to me that the trend is about to form a short-term top and we’re about to enter the longer-term accumulation trend before the trend continues post halving. This may end up being a sideways accumulation and if so, still provide opportunities for entry to capture the next move above $100k+. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

Over the last week, BTC saw weakness below the prior ATH and it caused me to take defensive positions in the market as lower prices began to be tested.

Price started the week below the prior ATH at $67,565 and we fell to $60,820 before shortly rallying and recovering most of those gains and closing the week at $67,150.

With the price still trading below the prior ATH, it is influencing my decisions and making me take more defensive positions. However as the D20 (grey) is being held, there are still signs of strength and it will be confirmed if we rally above $70,000 with conviction and I can start to be more offensive in the market.

For now, my focus has just been to be patient and wait for the confirmation to go on the offensive to not get caught in offside positions. Once we get the confirmation, more leverage and size can be placed into the market to capture further upside gains on BTC and Altcoins. However, for now, while we are trading below, I’m cautious and waiting to see what the next move brings.

For now, I’ve taken profits on the vast majority of my spot positions and only have minimal exposure to the large caps in the market. I’m trading the short-term moves in Altcoins to generate extra return and waiting patiently for the coming and eventual correction in BTC to start re-accumulating and preparing for the next run much higher.

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ether has followed the prior DOSES analysis perfectly and has respected the D50 as major support with the price now trading at $3,439.

ETH started the trading week at $3,517 (below the prior ATH similar to BTC) and held the D50 (red) as support. It tested it on Tuesday where it fell to $3,060 however has since recovered to $3,435 and may continue to test the EMA if we see further consolidation in BTC.

I’m watching Ether carefully for a break above $3,600 to signal strength and a “risk on” mentality in the market. This will allow lower-cap Altcoins room to move much higher and opportunities to catch these on-spot and leveraged positions. The same analysis as last week follows and “day by day” updates will be sent in the Discord Server for when the risk on switch occurs and we can start to see further upside moves in BTC and the Altcoin space.

ETH is going to be my signal for Altcoin's strengths/weaknesses and determine my positioning in the market. Short-term opportunities are ripe and I aim to lock in extra gains that I can add to my long-term accumulation before we see the bigger correction.

Patience is required when trading Ether and BTC to confirm the breakout before any short-term trades can be taken to capture Ether’s volatility.

My main goal this week is to be patient and wait for BTC to confirm a breakout. Then catch the Ethereum breakout and make BTC Value as capital flows into more high-risk Altcoins.

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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