Welcome Everyone to the Sixteenth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• Bitcoin tops $73,835 and a brand new ATH as ETF flows remain strong. 💪

• Ether charges past the March 2022 high and tags $4,000 before seeing a pullback. 🐂

• Sentiment reaches high Extreme Greed levels as Memecoins have massive surges to the upside as investors chase yield and enter a Euphoric state. 🍾💸

Market Sentiment 🧠

With new ATHs being made on BTC, sentiment is peaking into high Extreme Greed levels that have only previously been seen at the June 2019 top, February 2021 highs, and now in March 2024.

With the recent dip below the prior ATHs at $69,000, Sentiment fell below the 80 level and is now trading at 79. We had 2 main pushes to high Extreme Greed on the 5th of March (90) and 14th of March (88) which were both seen as reversal days as funding grew too high and the market needed time to reset and consolidate before further prices could be tested.

While Sentiment is at Extreme Levels, this does not mean that a reversal happens immediately. First, deceleration needs to take place and distribution, then we’re likely going to see a markdown in price and a move into the next accumulation zone.

It’s always difficult to be a seller and lock in profits when the market enters conditions like this, where the group consensus and ‘think’ is ‘Up Only’ and recent price moves are extrapolated many times into the future at an exponential rate. But it is he who sells to the Greedy investor, who is then able to use cash to re-buy from the Fearful investor when the time comes to re-accumulate and prepare for the next run in the market.

Right now it’s best to focus on short-term trades and be consistently realizing gains so you don’t get caught when the tide turns. Altcoins have significantly less liquidity than BTC and can be harder to exit positions when everyone is exiting positions and the price is being marked down at a rapid rate.

I still believe we are currently in the ‘Euphoria/Complacency’ phase of this new Market Cycle that started last year, and in the “Disbelief” phase of the longer-term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow-moving indicator, and may not change week to week. We peaked for a few days in Euphoria during the ETF announcement but since the sell-off, we’ve seen a continued short squeeze back to the highs, providing another opportunity to sell and letting the average investors be complacent/wait for higher prices which aren’t likely to happen just yet (100k+).

This indicates to me that the trend is about to form a short-term top and we’re about to enter the longer-term accumulation trend before the trend continues post halving. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

Over the last few weeks, BTC saw historical price action. It made a new ATH above $69,000 and tagged $73,935 and is now trading slightly below the prior ATH at $66,360.

A move like this is unprecedented in the price history of Bitcoin where a new ATH is made before the next halving. This is fundamentally due to strong ETF flows and a supply crunch where there isn’t enough Spot BTC available for everyone to purchase.

Since we made the new ATH above $70,000. The trend is bullish and buyers are starting to step in at the D20 EMA (grey) which can push the price back above $69,000 and into my ‘offensive’ territory.

My goal is to trade short-term Altcoin moves following BTC price action. If we’re trading below the prior ATH at $69,000 my goal is to short/be flat weak Altcoins and if we trade above and hold $69,000. I want to be long strong Altcoins as capital rotations continue into the low-cap coins.

For now, I’ve taken profits on the vast majority of my spot positions and only have minimal exposure to the large caps in the market. I’m trading the short-term moves in Altcoins to generate extra return and waiting patiently for the coming and eventual correction in BTC to start re-accumulating and preparing for the next run much higher.

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ether has traded more sporadically compared to BTC due to the ranging behavior in ETH/BTC that has caused it to have impulses and sideways movement as BTC continued to climb higher to its new ATH.

ETH has managed to reach our $3,000 target as BTC started rallying towards its previous ATH. Then as BTC pushed higher above $70,000. Ether bulls pushed the price to $3,580 (March 2022 highs) and continued bidding the price up to $4,000 where the price stalled and bears stepped in to cause a pullback to $3,570.

I’m trading Ether with a similar method to trading BTC, below the March 2022 highs I’m more defensive where I aim to be flat and short weak Altcoins, and above I’ll be offensive and take long positions on strong Altcoins.

It’s possible for Ether to trade back to the D50 currently sitting around $3,200 but the trend is still strongly bullish and if we do start making LLs and LHs from here. There have to be large swings higher to form LHs which can be captured with trading opportunities.

ETH is going to be my signal for Altcoin's strengths/weaknesses and determine my positioning in the market. Short-term opportunities are ripe and I aim to lock in extra gains that I can add to my long-term accumulation before we see the bigger correction.

For now, I expect further surges in Altcoins off the back of Ether's strength and am paying attention to strong Altcoins to catch these moves (SOL, RNDR, potentially MEMES).

Hope you have a safe and profitable trading week! As always, day-by-day updates are provided in the Discord which you can find at the bottom of this DOSE!

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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