Welcome Everyone to the Fifteenth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• Bulls continue to squeeze all bearish short positions as BTC makes a massive parabolic surge above USD 60,000 and $64,000. 🍾💰

• Sentiment finally reaches above the 80 level and into clear Extreme Greed Territory. 🥂

• Ether is just trading shy of its March 2022 highs which could signal further profit-taking and a region to watch for a rapid snapback in the market. 📉

Market Sentiment 🧠

With BTC surging above USD 60,000, this has finally given the Fear/Greed index indicator enough momentum to rise above 80 and clearly into Extreme Greed levels.

Sentiment right now is trading at the 82 level. It peaked at 82 during the week when BTC tagged $64,000 for the first time during this run. Now that we’ve made it to the target region, the risk is high for building new long-term positions in the market at these prices and valuations.

When the market makes parabolic moves and pushes sentiment to these Extremes, it’s common for Profit Taking to take place by smart investors and for emotional traders to hold positions/add further expecting the parabolic advance to continue and for the market to continue moving in their favor.

It’s always difficult to be a seller and lock in profits when the market enters conditions like this, where the group consensus and ‘think’ is ‘Up Only’ and recent price moves are extrapolated many times into the future at an exponential rate. But it is he who sells to the Greedy investor, who is then able to use cash to re-buy from the Fearful investor when the time comes to re-accumulate and prepare for the next run in the market.

Right now it’s best to focus on short-term trades and be consistently realizing gains so you don’t get caught when the tide turns. Altcoins have significantly less liquidity than BTC and can be harder to exit positions when everyone is exiting positions and the price is being marked down at a rapid rate.

I still believe we are currently in the ‘Euphoria/Complacency’ phase of this new Market Cycle that started last year, and in the “Disbelief” phase of the longer-term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow-moving indicator, and may not change week to week. We peaked for a few days in Euphoria during the ETF announcement but since the sell-off, we’ve seen a continued short squeeze back to the highs, providing another opportunity to sell and letting the average investors be complacent/wait for higher prices which aren’t likely to happen just yet (100k+).

This indicates to me that the trend is about to form a short-term top and we’re about to enter the longer-term accumulation trend before we rally into the halving. Since we have seen the push to $48k, sell-off, and continued short squeeze. The ‘Expanded Flat’ trading idea has been invalidated and we now have to look at the W20 and W50 EMA’s as target zones for a correction. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

Bitcoin had a very volatile week starting at $54,540. Peaking at $64,087 and ending at $63,154.

The move predominantly happened in the first half of the week, before it reached $64,000 and entered consolidation where sellers stepped in, halted the buying of Euphoria, and found short-term support at $60,350.

This week I’m expecting bulls to keep testing bears and for prices to climb higher, albeit at a slower rate than the previous week. Rallies like these only end when large sellers step in and push prices lower causing a liquidation move and wick, so until this occurs, I’m expecting bulls to continue testing higher prices.

If we see dips early in the week I expect $60,350 to act as support and price movements below can form wicks and the supportive structure to a consolidation range. This can reset some of the leveraged positions in the market and provide confidence for bulls to test higher prices and see where the large sellers are expected to step in.

My goal this week is to trade Altcoins over BTC. Profits can be shifted down into higher-risk sectors of the market and strong Altcoins are in the perfect place to capitalize on the extra capital flows. If we see a large rejection on BTC, I can scalp it short however it’s not my priority. Remember to take profits early and often during these moves! As it can get very volatile and unpredictable around which levels will hold as support and resistance.

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ether followed the BTC strength and continued to rally above $3,000 and tag $3,524 last week. When BTC climbs higher, it’s supported by ETF flow capital and the short squeezes only amplify the move. However, for Ether, it relies on capital downflow from BTC which causes similar short squeezes however there’s much less liquidity which causes more sporadic price action.

For now, I expect Ether to trade in line with BTC and travel above the March 2022 highs at $3,578 before there’s any sign of large sellers stepping into the market. The one concerning factor regarding Ether is the amount of HTF gaps plaguing the Futures chart.

Gaps like these are likely to be filled at some point and can provide nice entry points for accumulation. However, it’s hard to predict when and how deep these will occur. It’s best to lock in profits often and early during these conditions to not get caught in the corrective move.

For now, I expect further surges in Altcoins off the back of Ether's strength and am paying attention to strong Altcoins to catch these moves.

Hope you have a safe and profitable trading week! As always, day-by-day updates are provided in the Discord that you can find at the bottom of this DOSE!

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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