Welcome Everyone to the Fourteenth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• Altcoins take centre stage as Ether pushes past $3,000 and DeFi protocols introduce fundamental changes to tokenomics. 🎉

• Sentiment remains at elevated levels however hasn’t crossed and exceeded the major 80/100 Extreme Greed level.

• An overview of the coins on watch this week and the next big moves expected in the market. 🧠

Market Sentiment 🧠

During the week, Sentiment remained rangebound between the 72-78 region as the price of BTC traded sideways above $50,000.

Despite the surge in Altcoins and Ethereum trading above $3,000 which is a reliable indicator of Extreme Greed market sentiment, we haven’t seen the level break above 80 and there may be still a little more upside left in the market to form HTF wicks and start a deeper correction back to Fear levels.

As stated in previous doses, if we see further consolidation in BTC it only provides more fuel and conviction for bulls to push Altcoins and Memecoins higher during this phase. It’s best to focus on short-term trades and be consistently realising gains so you don’t get caught when the tide turns. Altcoins have significantly less liquidity than BTC and can be harder to exit positions when everyone is exiting positions and the price is being marked down at a rapid rate.

I still believe we are currently in the ‘Complacency’ phase of this new mini Market Cycle that started last year, and in the “Disbelief” phase of the longer term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow moving indicator, and may not change week to week. We peaked for a few days in Euphoria during the ETF announcement but since the sell-off, and have just seen consolidation and a short squeeze back to the highs, providing another opportunity to sell and letting the average investors be complacent/wait for higher prices (100k+).

This indicates to me that the trend is about to form a short-term top and we’re about to enter the longer-term accumulation trend before we rally into the halving. Since we have seen the push to $48k, sell-off and formation of a Wyckoff Distribution Pattern and now into a possible Expanded Flat Corrective pattern, we’re most likely going to see sellers step in on BTC and start the pre-halving correction before we rally into the next fundamental event for Bitcoin. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

Bitcoin is trading in line with expectations set out in DOSE #13.

BTC started the trading week at $51,760 and ended at $51,670 while remaining rangebound the whole week. This sideways movement in BTC gave Altcoins the freedom to outperform and make massive gains as traders shifted their focus further into the risk spectrum.

The deceleration that’s becoming present in BTC is showing me that HTF traders and larger positions are starting to meet the demand and equalise price in the market, however, short-term futures and leverage traders are still in control of the LTF moves and while we are seeing deceleration we can still see a few more attempts at new Yearly highs before HTF traders step in and overpower the LTF positions - causing a liquidation cascade.

The ‘Expanded Flat’ corrective pattern is still in play despite the magnitude of the short squeeze above $48,000. However, given the current price levels, I need to see larger positions and whales take control of the price and bring BTC back below $48,000 where the corrective move can start. This move has to happen relatively soon and with confidence, otherwise, the idea is invalid and we can start to look to swing trade Alts to the upside as BTC will retain its strength. 💸

My goal is to monitor BTC price action and swing trade Altcoins following the strength. We’re at the stage where a sustained price above $50,000 can make Altcoins surge much higher and I want to be positioned to capture these moves. If we see a breakdown below $48,000 on BTC be sustained, I want to position short on bounces and get short on Altcoins as they will mirror the weakness in the market.

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ethereum continued to push higher and outperform BTC as traders shifted their focus away from the majors and the revival of the DeFi narrative renewed some life back into the sector.

Ether started the trading week at $2,940 and immediately rallied to $3,000 and peaked at $3,035 before seeing a small correction. This was then supported by bulls during the mid-week and we saw a further rally to $3,100 during the weekend as profits from BTC began shifting into Ether and Altcoins.

My expectation for Ether is that while it finds support and buyers above $3,000 we can continue to see strength and a further rally to March 2022 highs is possible if BTC sustains itself above $50,000. This will further surge Altcoins and provide outsized returns in the mid-low cap sectors which is my focus this week (LINK, RNDR, SOL, COMP, NEAR).

For now, I expect further surges in Altcoins off the back of Ether strength and once we know if the corrective pattern is coming into play or not, I can reposition and catch the move higher in Ether to $3,500 and higher.

Make sure to always be paying attention to BTC price action when trading Altcoins, and when Ether starts trading above $3,000. Volatility can be high once we see these prices and it’s best to be securing gains and locking in profits each leg higher the market provides for us.

Hope you have a safe and profitable trading week! As always, day-by-day updates are provided in the Discord that you can find at the bottom of this DOSE!

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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