Welcome Everyone to the Thirteenth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• BTC pushes to new Yearly highs and continues the squeeze to $52,000! 🎉

• Ether starts to outperform BTC as bulls try to push the price to the much anticipated and major $3,000 psychological level.

• A second wave of Euphoria is present with Altcoins making sudden surges and investors are throwing money at all crypto projects. 👀

Market Sentiment 🧠

With BTC surging to new highs and tagging the $52,000 resistance level. The market is in Extreme Greed and I expect sentiment to rise above the 80 level signalling significant excess in the market that it’s time to start being cautious of a short-term top forming and a correction starting to reset sentiment and swing back into Fear levels.

If we see consolidation in BTC and a surge in Altcoins, this should be enough to push sentiment above 80 and officially enter the sell zone. The strength will most prominently be seen in meme coins - ones that aren’t backed by fundamentals but follow social trends and create another signal that a market correction is right around the corner.

During these phases, it’s best to focus on short-term trades and consistently realising gains so you don’t get caught when the tide turns. Altcoins have significantly less liquidity than BTC and can be harder to exit positions when everyone is exiting positions and the price is being marked down at a rapid rate.

I still believe we are currently in the ‘Complacency’ phase of this new mini Market Cycle that started last year, and in the “Disbelief” phase of the longer-term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow-moving indicator, and may not change week to week. We peaked for a few days in Euphoria during the ETF announcement but since the sell-off, and have just seen consolidation and a short squeeze back to the highs, providing another opportunity to sell and letting the average investors be complacent/wait for higher prices (100k+).

This indicates to me that the trend is about to form a short-term top and we’re about to enter the longer-term accumulation trend before we rally into the halving. Since we have seen the push to $48k, sell-off and formation of a Wyckoff Distribution Pattern and now into a possible Expanded Flat Corrective pattern, we’re most likely going to see sellers step in on BTC and start the pre-halving correction before we rally into the next fundamental event for Bitcoin. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

Bitcoin started the trading week just below the $50,000 support and above the previous ETF highs showing that the short squeeze is in full effect and bulls are in control of the short-term price action. During the week, the price continued to rally and tag $52,890 before stalling for a few days however still held in a tight trading range between $52,570 and $51,360.

The deceleration that’s becoming present in BTC is showing me that HTF traders and larger positions are starting to meet the demand and equalise price in the market, however, short-term futures and leverage traders are still in control of the LTF moves and while we are seeing deceleration we can still see a few more attempts at new Yearly highs before HTF traders step in and overpower the LTF positions - causing a liquidation cascade.

The ‘Expanded Flat’ corrective pattern is still in play despite the magnitude of the short squeeze above $48,000. However, given the current price levels, I need to see larger positions and whales take control of the price and bring BTC back below $48,000 where the corrective move can start. This move has to happen relatively soon and with confidence, otherwise, the idea is invalid and we can start to look to swing trade Alts to the upside as BTC will retain its strength. 💸

My goal is to monitor BTC price action and swing trade Altcoins following the strength. We’re at the stage where a sustained price above $50,000 can make Altcoins surge much higher and I want to be positioned to capture these moves. If we see a breakdown below $48,000 on BTC be sustained, I want to position short on bounces and get short on Altcoins as they will mirror the weakness in the market. In the short term, my goal is to capture Altcoin pops to the upside.

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ethereum was more active than BTC this week and outperformed by +6.3% to the upside. This was fuelled by speculation of an Ethereum ETF as well as DeFi network activity picking up as interest in the crypto market starts to return.

ETH started the trading week at $2,655 and rallied throughout the week to tag $2,896 on Sunday as BTC was slow. The strength over BTC shows that traders are starting to speculate on Altcoins and chase yield. Eventually, this Greedy behaviour will end in liquidations and massive losses for long positions, but in the short term, this Euphoric bidding creates more bidding and higher prices - resulting in future psychological levels being tested until BTC wants to stop the music and cause all Altcoins to enter corrections.

For now, Ether. is trading and finding bid-side support above $2,800 so my expectation is that we will tag $3,000 shortly and give Altcoins another surge or two. All that’s required is for BTC to trade sideways/slightly up and the Ether bulls should have enough conviction to continue bidding up and above $3,000.

If we don’t enter the ‘Expanded Flat’ corrective pattern on BTC, then the March 2022 highs are opened up for Ether and we can continue seeing higher prices. For now, I expect further surges in Altcoins off the back of Ether strength and once we know if the corrective pattern is coming into play or not, I can reposition and catch the move higher in Ether to $3,500 and higher.

Make sure to always be paying attention to BTC price action when trading Altcoins, and when Ether starts trading above $3,000. Volatility can be high once we see these prices and it’s best to be securing gains and locking in profits each leg higher the market provides for us.

Hope you have a safe and profitable trading week! As always, day-by-day updates are provided in the Discord which you can find at the bottom of this DOSE!

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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