Welcome Everyone to the Twelfth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• BTC breaks out above $44,000 and returns back to the highs of $48,000! 🎉

• Investors are starting to venture out into the risk spectrum as a few strong Altcoins make massive moves to the upside. 📈

• Sentiment approaches ‘Extreme Greed’ territory once again as BTC trades near local highs. 👀

Market Sentiment 🧠

The current market sentiment sits in the ‘Greed’ territory with a current reading of 70 as BTC pushes past $44,000 resistance and back to the local highs at $48,000. The impulse and short squeeze have made Sentiment levels return to the local highs alongside price and we can easily see more FOMO enter the market and for Sentiment to reach Extreme Greed levels above 80 before we see the true short-term top.

Altcoins are following BTC however are underperforming on the BTC pairs. This shows that investors aren’t chasing yield yet, however during an Extreme Greed push, the capital rotation can start to occur and speculative Altcoins can make huge moves. I’m waiting to see if Sentiment can reach above 80, then I want to take short term positions in high risk Altcoins before we see BTC top and make Altcoins correct alongside it.

I still believe we are currently in the ‘Complacency’ phase of this new mini Market Cycle that started last year, and in the “Disbelief” phase of the longer term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow moving indicator, and may not change week to week. We peaked for a few days in Euphoria during the ETF announcement but since the sell-off, and have just seen consolidation and a short squeeze back to the highs, providing another opportunity to sell and letting the average investors be complacent/wait for higher prices.

This indicates to me that the trend is about to form a short term top and we’re about to enter the longer term accumulation trend before we rally into the halving. Since we have seen the push to $48k, sell-off and formation of a Wyckoff Distribution Pattern, we’re most likely going to see sellers step in on BTC and start the pre-halving correction before we rally into the next fundamental event for Bitcoin. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

Bitcoin started the trading week at $42,640 before breaking out of the symmetrical bull flag and trading above the resistance at $44,000 and into our expected wick zone. The squeeze then continued and Bitcoin continued to rally back to $48,000 before stalling at the 0.618 HTF resistance and ending the week at $48,280.

The rapid rise in price above $44,000 resistance was due to the mass amount of shorts being liquidated expecting the further breakdown sub $40,000 too early, and amateur traders eagerly buying and dip in Bitcoin expecting the trend to continue to much higher levels above $80,000 and even $100,000. This is still considered a ‘Complacency’ bounce as the HTF structure hasn’t changed and the price can be forming an ‘Expanded Flat’ correction.

The ‘Expanded Flat’ is a painful type of correction to experience and trade due to the ability to trap traders and positions at the extremes of each of the impulses. The first wave passes below the major support of $40,000 before trapping shorts and squeezing them as much as possible which causes a rally back to the highs and even slightly higher. During this rally, traders start to pile into long positions, expecting much higher prices before the price stalls and reverses quickly, leaving these traders underwater and beginning to liquidate them as there is a rush to exit. Only professionals who understand the market and sentiment can take full advantage of these traps however come at the risk of squeezes in both directions.

My goal is to observe the Daily closes and price action above $48,000 if a rejection becomes likely. If so, my ‘Expanded Flat’ trading idea (light blue) will activate and I aim to short BTC back to $40,000 and get positioned on each bounce for the eventual breakdown of this level before the halving.

The market conditions post Euphoria are volatile and choppy so I will only be taking perfect positions. It can be difficult to trade during these conditions, and waiting patiently would be the best strategy for most traders to avoid getting chopped up. As always, join the Discord for more day-by-day updates and how I’m navigating these markets!

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ether followed BTC this week and is trading back above the $2,400 resistance area.

ETH started the trading week at $2,300 before rallying alongside BTC to $2,540 before momentum started to fade and Ether ended the week at $2,506. Considering the major ascending wedge breakout that has occurred from ETH from the breakout above $2,000; the trend is still bullish and Daily price action is continuing the trend with Higher Highs and Higher Lows.

For this week, the major pivot point I’m watching for on ETH is $2,615. If this is broken, we can begin to see an increase in ETH/BTC value which will push the ETH dollar valuation much higher and potentially reach $3,000. I am waiting for confirmation of this move and will trade it when ETH/BTC spikes and Ether becomes more active compared to BTC.

For now, I expect ETH to follow BTC in lockstep until we get to the point where ETH/BTC can spike. I’m looking to take short-term trades on strong Altcoins and a potential swing on Ether if we get the confirmation and strength above $2,615 that we’re likely heading to $3,000 next.

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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