Welcome Everyone to the Eleventh Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• BTC consolidates above $40,000 as bulls struggle to push the price back to the ETF approval levels. 💰

• A few select Altcoins show strength and have broken out from accumulation patterns, showing investors are chasing returns in a flat market. 📈

• Sentiment pushes back into Greedy territory and could be forming the final stages of the Wyckoff Distribution pattern. 💸

Market Sentiment 🧠

The market is sitting in ‘Greedy’ territory as BTC enters consolidation above $40,000. Sentiment peaked at 76 Greed levels and has recovered to 60 levels. I’m expecting an eventual breakdown in price and sentiment to bring levels into ‘Fear’ and below 50 levels. However, during the Complacency bounce, sentiment can consolidate alongside price before we see a strong rejection and breakdown below $40,000.

Weaker altcoins are confirming breakdown patterns so I expect Sentiment to drift towards Fear as we get further into the market correction. We need to wait for more Extreme Levels for the best buying opportunities and Sentiment to peak.

We are currently in the ‘Complacency’ phase of this new mini-market cycle that started last year, and in the “Disbelief” phase of the longer-term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow-moving indicator, and may not change week to week. We peaked for a few days in Euphoria during the ETF announcement but since the sell-off, consolidation, and reduction in sentiment, this indicates we have swiftly moved into the ‘Complacency’ phase.

This indicates to me that the trend has formed a short term top and we’re about to enter the longer term accumulation trend before we rally into the halving. Since we have seen the push to $48k, sell-off and formation of a Wyckoff Distribution Pattern, we’re most likely going to see $40k being tested and for price to eventually test lower levels pre-halving. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

Bitcoin started the trading week at $43,335 before forming a short-term LTF top. The price retraced to $41,920 before finding support and traders kept the price in a tight range and ended the week at $42,546.

Price is trading in a tight range as buyers and sellers have found an equilibrium above $40,000. It’s common for the market to trade slowly during periods of Complacency as long traders hold positions and don’t take advantage of high prices before markdowns occur. This gives institutions and smart money a chance to exit their final positions in the market before the markdown occurs and leave retail holding the bag.

A short squeeze is possible above $44,000 but I don’t see it being sustained and only provides further fuel for a more aggressive move to the downside.

My goal is to position short on this short squeeze and catch the next daily run lower in Bitcoin as we get further development.

The market conditions post Euphoria are volatile and choppy so I will only be taking perfect positions. It can be difficult to trade during these conditions, and waiting patiently would be the best strategy for most traders to avoid getting chopped up. As always, join the Discord for more day-by-day updates and how I’m navigating these markets!

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ether is trading in a larger range compared to BTC, however is showing more weakness so it may be easier to position short if we get a short squeeze during the week.

ETH started the trading week at $2,318 before rallying to $2,394 and then closing the week at $2,288. It was following step by step alongside BTC and is currently rejecting the D50 (red) as resistance as the D20 (grey) is trending lower and is about to cross to the downside.

Right now my focus is trading BTC and strong Altcoins. ETH isn’t showing enough volatility to prefer to trade it over BTC and Altcoins are giving predictable runs that are easier to capture without leverage.

My expectation for the future of ETH remains the same as in previous DOSES. It will follow BTC price action and enter accumulation into the BTC halving and generally underperforming BTC. A change in fundamentals, sentiment, or/and price action will change my view and that’s when we can expect ETH to better outperform BTC and generate a higher return.

My goal is to get short BTC and weaker Altcoins on squeezes higher and anticipate the further correction and confirmation of breakdowns of each distribution pattern respectively.

While BTC remains boring, Members still make Gains! $LINK $RNDR 📈💰

As I’ve traded multiple ‘Complacency’ bounces in the past, I’ve come to learn the patterns and expectations and how to best trade during these conditions.

1. Tight consolidation ranges on the majors.

BTC and ETH usually trade at elevated levels and in tight ranges as bulls and bears find an equilibrium. This provides very ‘trappy’ price action and false moves as bears sell into rallies above resistance and bulls buy dips below tight support levels.

2. Few Altcoins show strength above the rest and provide clean breakout pattern opportunities.

As consolidation and dips occur on the majors, it causes the strong Altcoins to dip alongside them but are immediately met with buyers and prepare for the eventual breakouts higher. This can be due to fundamental changes, announcements, or both.

3. The breakouts occur and give retail traders to buy at elevated levels. They expect higher prices when the major coins ‘catch up’ and it will push the strong coin higher.

The traders buying at elevated levels provide exit liquidity for the smart traders who lock in short-term gains as they wait for the signal from the majors.

4. The majors roll over and fall, causing cascading liquidations on the strong coins that are now unsupported by bulls in the market.

These supposedly ‘strong’ coins now fall back below their short-term accumulation levels and trade in line with the major coins. The retail traders buying the breakouts are now sitting in a significant loss with poor entries and are forced to realize the losses or HODL the position. The smart traders have realized gains and are preparing to deploy the extra capital into the market during the capitulation and fear phases.

This week in the Discord, a few coins have provided these breakout opportunities and while BTC has been flat for the week, the spot portfolio has increased approx. +13% and a total of +15.32% over the last 30 days while BTC is down approx. -4% over the same period.

The Chainlink Trade

Most of the profits were made on the Chainlink position with a 15% total move captured.

The Render Trade

This RNDR position was a short-term position for ‘bonus’ profits and was a much smaller position with a closer target.

Hopefully, you can all analyze the trades and add the ideas to your Trading Plan so you can better perform during these consolidation periods of you missed these moves! Also, make sure to join the group Discord so you can be informed in real-time of the trades and trade ideas so you can capture these moves too! 📈

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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