Welcome Everyone to the Ninth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• The BTC ETFs have been out for over a week now and flows are starting to reveal the short-term trend and bias. 🎯

• Altcoins slowed down amid BTC consolidation and are continuing to be distributed. 📉

• X.com is preparing to launch a new Payments product and traders are eyeing for DOGE to be a potential integration. 🐶

Market Sentiment 🧠

The market is now sitting in ‘Neutral’ territory after seeing the sell-off post ETF approval. It peaked at Extreme Greed (75) however is now Neutral (55) as traders start to take a risk-off stance in the market.

I feel like there is still some bullish hopium in the Altcoin market but we don’t have an index to track sentiment. Ether is still trading near the highs and hasn’t broken down with BTC, however many Altcoins are showing weakness and distribution.

We are currently in the ‘Complacency’ phase of this new mini Market Cycle that started last year, and in the “Disbelief” phase of the longer term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow moving indicator, and may not change week to week. We peaked for a few days in Euphoria during the ETF announcement but since the sell-off, consolidation, and reduction in sentiment, this indicates we have swiftly moved into the ‘Complacency’ phase.

This indicates to me that the trend is forming a short-term top/has already topped and we’re about to enter the longer-term accumulation trend into the halving since we have seen the push to $48k, sell-off, and formation of a Wyckoff Distribution Pattern, it’s possible the short term top is in and BTC is about to fall below $40,000 and enter accumulation. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

Bitcoin started the trading week at $42,465 and had a small rally to $43,395 before retracing all the gains and ending up closing at $41,705. The price action is showing clear signs and dynamics of a “Complacency” phase and price is now trading back at the major $40,000 support zone.

Due to how long the distribution phase has lasted for (Started on 5th Dec 2023), I don’t expect an immediate breakdown after a spring has occurred but small pullbacks to grab the final spots of liquidity and form traps before the full breakdown event occurs.

For this trading week as price has come down to major support levels, I’m looking to trade short squeezes on BTC up to $43,000 and higher levels as larger traders further position short in the market before I want to attempt to catch the breakdown of the support level.

This week was a very volatile week for BTC. We started the trading week at $44,000 and saw an immediate push to $47,000 as rumors of the ETF approval were becoming imminent. A few days later we saw the approval and we saw a spike to $49,102 on Coinbase as the newly listed spot ETFs started trading. Since the listing, investors offloaded positions and Took Profits. Dropping price below $44,000 and creating a ‘Spring’ in the Wyckoff Distribution pattern.

The market conditions post Euphoria can be volatile and choppy so I will only be taking perfect positions. It can be difficult to trade during these conditions, and waiting patiently would be the best strategy for most traders to avoid getting chopped up. As always, join the Discord for more day-by-day updates and how I’m navigating these markets!

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Altcoins are more unpredictable than BTC and can be influenced by whales and cause traps in either direction. I’d recommend lowering size during this time to avoid getting manipulated on wicks.

Ethereum started the trading week at $2,508 and rallied to $2,614 before falling alongside BTC to $2,456 and just sustaining above the $2,400 breakout level. Ether is still technically following a bullish structure on the HTFs however if BTC falls, Ether can trade below $2,400 and form a trap that can further accelerate ETH to the downside.

The same analysis as last week follows where we will have to wait and see if Ether has enough momentum to continue to $2,700 and higher. In the short term Ether can see further squeezes and I’d like to capitalise on them if the occur with short term positions.

The major pivot points for Ether are below the $2,400 support where further bearish momentum can enter the market. However, for bullish momentum, Ether will have to trade above $2,600 with confidence for me to take long positions and target higher prices.

Patience is required when trading Ether and must need BTC to confirm the breakout before any short term trades can be taken to capture Ethers volatility.

My main goal this week is to be patient and wait for BTC to confirm a breakout. Then catch the Ethereum breakout and make BTC Value as capital flows into more high risk Altcoins.

X.com and DOGE. Payments coming? 💰🐶

In the final few months of 2023, Elon Musk’s social media platform, X.com announced that it will launch a peer-to-peer payments service in 2024 which will extend the functionality of X.com and will offer users the ability to send/tip creators on the platform.

Due to Elon’s history with Dogecoin, speculation is starting to build whether there will be an additional DOGE tipping option and it will become the ‘unofficial’ official currency on the platform. This would be a big milestone for Dogecoin, with its use case extending to one of the largest social media platforms, it opens itself to a new audience and market that can transact in DOGE for the first time.

On the NMLS Database, X Payments LLC (the company to be conducting the money transmitter business), has recently been updated with the majority of US states authorizing X Payments to conduct business and offer the service.

It is yet to be confirmed whether DOGE will be added to this service, however, there is a trading opportunity available to capitalize on the announcement and trading up to the announcement.

Hope you all can keep a close eye on DOGE because when it spikes, it spikes quickly and rarely gives you a chance to get positioned at optimal price levels. 📈

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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