Welcome Everyone to the Eighth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• The long-awaited BTC ETF has been approved and started trading! 🍾

• Price peaked at our full target at $48,000 and Sentiment has come back down to Greed levels from Extreme Greed in the sell-off after approval. 🎯

• A deep dive into Wyckoff Distribution patterns and how the one forming can push Bitcoin below $40,000. 💰

Market Sentiment 🧠

The market is now sitting in ‘Neutral’ territory after seeing the sell-off post ETF approval. It peaked at Extreme Greed (75) however is now Neutral (52) as traders start to take a risk-off stance in the market.

I feel like there is still some bullish hopium in the Altcoin market but we don’t have an index to track sentiment. Ether is still trading near the highs and hasn’t broken down with BTC, however many Altcoins are showing weakness and distribution and can be the ‘canary in the coal-mine’ for what’s to come.

It can be observed that since the rally to $38,000, sentiment has been Greedy however only peaks at the 73 level before market consolidation cools conditions in the short term.

We are currently in the ‘Complacency’ phase of this new mini-market cycle that started last year, and in the “Disbelief” phase of the longer-term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow-moving indicator, and may not change week to week. We peaked for a few days in Euphoria during the ETF announcement but since the sell-off and reduction in sentiment, this indicates we have swiftly moved into the ‘Complacency’ phase.

This indicates to me that the trend is forming a short-term top/has already topped and we’re about to enter the longer-term accumulation trend into the halving since we have seen the push to $48k, sell-off, and formation of a Wyckoff Distribution Pattern, it’s possible the short term top is in and BTC is about to fall below $40,000 and enter accumulation. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

This week was a very volatile week for BTC. We started the trading week at $44,000 and saw an immediate push to $47,000 as rumors of the ETF approval were becoming imminent. A few days later we saw the approval and we saw a spike to $49,102 on Coinbase as the newly listed spot ETFs started trading. Since the listing, investors offloaded positions and Took Profits. Dropping price below $44,000 and creating a ‘Spring’ in the Wyckoff Distribution pattern.

Bitcoin traded exactly in line with the expectations in prior DOSES with the rally to $48,000 on approval and a subsequent sell-off. Now that we’ve entered the final stages of distribution I am looking to position short in BTC on short squeezes and prepare for the impulsive move sub $40,000. The main pivot points are $40,700 for the breakdown of the distribution range, and above $44,000 to sell into short squeezes and get positioned for this breakdown.

The market conditions post Euphoria can be volatile and choppy so I will only be taking perfect positions. As always, join the Discord for more day-by-day updates and how I’m navigating these markets!

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ethereum also saw a volatile week and an outperformance compared to BTC after the ETF was approved.

Ether started the trading week at $2,225 and rallied +20% up to $2,717 before seeing a minor sell-off with BTC. It outperformed BTC, as traders shifted their profits further into riskier assets and speculation started to grow for an Ethereum Spot ETF in the future. It’s now trading at $2,500 and is maintaining above the highs at $2,400.

We will have to wait and see if Ether has enough momentum to continue to $2,700 and higher. During the pre-halving rally, usually BTC and ETH top at the same time so if BTC starts to break down I would expect ETH to follow below $2,400 and lower. However, in the short term, Ether can see further squeezes and I’d like to capitalise on them if they occur.

The major pivot points for Ether are below the $2,400 support where further bearish momentum can enter the market. However, for bullish momentum, Ether will have to trade above $2,600 with confidence for me to take long positions and target higher prices.

Patience is required when trading Ether and must need BTC to confirm the breakout before any short term trades can be taken to capture Ethers volatility.

My main goal this week is to be patient and wait for BTC to confirm a breakout. Then catch the Ethereum breakout and make BTC Value as capital flows into more high risk Altcoins.

Wyckoff Distribution - A Deep Dive 💸👀

In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency trading, mastering key technical analysis concepts can be a game-changer. One such powerful tool that has gained prominence is the Wyckoff distribution. Named after its creator Richard D. Wyckoff, this method provides valuable insights into market trends, helping traders make informed decisions.

Decoding Wyckoff Distribution:

At its core, the Wyckoff distribution is a market analysis technique that aims to identify potential accumulation and distribution phases. The model revolves around the interplay of smart money and retail investors, recognizing their footprints on price charts.

The Wyckoff distribution is divided into four distinct phases:

1. Accumulation: This phase marks the accumulation of assets by smart money at lower price levels. Prices tend to trade in a range as institutions quietly build their positions.

2. Markup: Following accumulation, the markup phase begins, characterized by a steady uptrend. This indicates the entry of larger players into the market, driving prices higher.

3. Distribution: As prices reach higher levels, the distribution phase unfolds. Smart money starts selling their holdings to eager retail investors, leading to a consolidation or sideways movement in the market.

4. Markdown: The final phase, markdown, sees a sharp decline in prices as the market corrects. Retail investors who bought during the distribution phase now face losses, while smart money capitalizes on their earlier profits.

Application in Crypto Markets:

Understanding the Wyckoff distribution is particularly beneficial in crypto markets, given their susceptibility to rapid price movements and speculative behavior. By recognizing the patterns associated with each phase, traders can anticipate potential trend reversals and strategically position themselves in the market.

Remember, while the Wyckoff distribution provides a valuable framework, combining it with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis enhances its effectiveness. Stay vigilant, adapt to changing market conditions, and let the Wyckoff distribution guide you in navigating the complexities of the crypto landscape.

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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