Welcome Everyone to the Sixth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• BTC and ETH consolidate in bull flag patterns as 2023 comes to a close. ⌛

• Sentiment falls into lower levels of the Greed region, as people take a break during the end-of-year weeks and can be expected to come back with fresh eyes. 🐂

• Insights into what to expect from the Halving Year and what Sectors I have my eyes on. 🎯

Market Sentiment 🧠

The current market sentiment is still sitting in the Greed region between 63-75 levels. During the consolidation in the bull flag, sentiment fell to the lows of 63 as bulls remain patient and continue supporting prices above 40,000.

Sentiment still has not reached Extreme Greed in this current disbelief rally. While it’s not guaranteed to reach Extreme Greed, it can be expected as the next move considering the strong trending market prices are in and the consolidation below resistance in the bull flag. I’m still expecting Extreme Greed, and it will be most reflected in Altcoin prices. 📈

We are currently in the “Thrill/Euphoria” phase of this new mini Market Cycle that started last year, and in the “Disbelief” phase of the longer term secular bullish market cycle. This is a slow moving indicator, and may not change week to week.

This indicates to me that the trend is almost ready to correct and continue the longer term accumulation trend into the halving, however needs to have a final “blow off top” / Euphoria phase where Crypto Assets are shown on local news stations/inexperienced retail enters the market and institutions begin to exit positions. Now we’ve seen consolidation in a bull flag, I expect a breakout early this year to take us to new short-term highs before a larger correction during 2024. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

BTC started the trading week at $43,550 and saw dips back toward the bull flag support at $42,000. The whole crypto market has been consolidating and taking a break as we transition into 2024 and the New Year. The large whales are traders aren’t active during these periods and it’s primarily just bots trading leading to low volatility and lots of “fakeout” moves.

My expectation for BTC in the early stages of 2024, is for it to continue following the trend and test prices above $45,000, and eventually test $48,000 where it can find a short-term top. Halving years change the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network and have a large impact on miners who can be leveraged and impact spot prices as the network transitions to new reward tokenomics.

The major pivot points for BTC is the $42,000 support which wicks below can be considered dip opportunities that can be used to accumulate short-term positions for distribution higher. However, momentum will come in above $45,000 which will lead to a fast move to $48,000 or higher. The D20 EMA (grey) is still holding price support, however, we can see a dip to the D50EMA (red) however caution must be taken if a LL is made and the price falls below $40,000.

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ethereum saw more volatility than BTC over the New Year Transition period with Ether making slightly new highs above $2,400 before failing to close above the region and sharply rejecting and falling back to the D20 at $2,250.

We’re in the territory for Ether to start outperforming BTC to the upside and having its run in the spotlight. All that’s required is for Ether to hold above $2,400 and $2,500 and ETH/BTC can push the price to $2,800 and higher.

The major pivot points for momentum are above the $2,400 level which can initiate a parabolic move. Similar to BTC, Ether is holding on to the D20EMA (grey) and can dip to the D50EMA (red) if BTC wants to cause a “fakeout” below its bull flag pattern.

I’m watching Ether very closely and want to capture as much of the parabolic move as possible to increase BTC value.

Patience is required when trading Ether and must need BTC to confirm the breakout before any short-term trades can be taken to capture Ethers volatility.

My main goal this week is to be patient and wait for BTC to confirm a breakout. Then catch the Ethereum breakout and make BTC Value as capital flows into more high-risk Altcoins.

Halving Year Expectations and Will the Bullish Momentum Continue 💸👀

As we continue on the repeated Bitcoin cycles, we enter the Year where we experience the next Bitcoin Halving. An event where the Bitcoin Networks mining reward gets cut in half, reducing the inflation rate and pressuring miners to become more efficient to continue their operations at a profit.

In the past, this has tended to cause a supply shock in Bitcoin. Where there is a reduced supply entering the market and with increased demand has historically caused a repricing in the asset in the area of 4-10x in value.

However, when people hear this statistic they think that it happens immediately at the time of the halving event or the year it occurs which is almost entirely wrong. There is a transition period where the miners and network support need to reorganize themselves around the new reward rate and after a demand spike to occur for the true repricing to happen.

With this theory, I don’t expect BTC to make new ATHs this Year and it’s most likely to enter a large consolidation range between $20,000 - $48,000 as the Halving event takes place, ETFs get approved and institutions can get loaded up before the next demand spike and repricing in the asset.

Below is a Monthly chart with more detail about my expectations surrounding the Halving event. This is a great year for accumulation when Sentiment turns to Fear and people give up right at the last moment and aren’t patient enough to wait for the continuation of the trend.

I hope you all take the opportunity at the start of the Year to make a plan and set yourself up for success in the market so you can reap the rewards Years into the future. I expect a few great opportunities to arise this year, and I hope you can all capture the opportunity. 📈

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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