Welcome Everyone to the Third Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

These week is extra special as Bitcoin has broken into the $40,000 region and Ethereum has official broken to the upside the revival pattern that has been in play since 2022 and is preparing for impulsive moves! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• BTC breaks into the $40,000 region and ETH follows with a break above $2,200. 🚀

• Sentiment is starting to reach Extreme levels but we’re awaiting our first official reading of Extreme Greed. 🧠

• Value Investing legend Charlie Munger passes away at age 99. 😞

• Mid-low cap Altcoins showing the greatest opportunity as rotations are expected to start into ALT/BTC pairs. 🎯

Market Sentiment 🧠

The current market sentiment is sitting in the Greed region at the 74 level. It increased due to the breakout into the $40,000 region and is expected to reach Extreme Greed when Altcoins start making impulses higher.

Since the break of $40,000, sentiment is reaching Extreme Greed levels (> 80) which will be the first sign to Take Profits as smart traders.

We have shifted the Market Cycles into a new phase upon this move above $40,000. We’re now in the “Thrill” phase of this new mini Market Cycle that started this year, and in the “Hope” phase of the longer term secular bullish market cycle. During this phase, retail predominantly enters the market, speculative Altcoins make large squeezes higher and institutional investors start to distribute onto the unsuspecting retail traders.

This indicates to me that the “blow off top” / Euphoria phase is about to start/has started where Crypto Assets are shown on local news stations/inexperienced retail enters the market and institutions begin to exit positions. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

BTC started the Week at $37,800 and saw small corrections/consolidation at resistance, before breaking out much higher and reaching the $40,000 on Sunday.

This perfectly followed the prior Chronicles analysis, where BTC respected the D20 EMA (grey) and effectively ‘teleported’ to $40,000 with little resistance/pullback.

The major pivot points for momentum now that BTC is above $40,000, is the $40,000 support and $42,000. I expect we see an impulsive and parabolic blow off top. However, there may be a quick flush below $40,000 to wipe out over leveraged traders and reset the market before price can start testing higher levels. A dip like this would be a phenomenal buying opportunity however it may never come and price continues marching higher.

My expected max target for BTC is $48,000. However $40,000 - $48,000 is my distribution zone where I will exit my positions and wait for the coming correction where I can buy Extreme Fear again.

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

As pointed out last week, Ether was consolidating under the $2,100 resistance zone and tested the $2,000 support for the final time before breaking out with BTC and making new highs above $2,200.

This has now confirmed a breakout of the recovery wedge, and bulls are in full control of ETH and how high ETH will travel.

To find the technical full target for a wedge breakout, you take the max height of the wedge pattern and extend this from the horizontal resistance as shown below.

My expectation for Ethereum is that ETH/USD will rally hard off the back of profit taking and rotations into Altcoins from BTC. Which can accelerate the ETH/BTC pair off the Weekly support level of 0.054.

Sharp liquidation falls in BTC can cause volatility in Ether, so leverage has to be used cautiously when buying Yearly high breakouts. However, Ether has a lot of upside potential to move (42% from current prices). And the Altcoin market can see even larger gains the further into the risk spectrum you follow.

My goal this week is to take BTC profits into USD. But also allocate USD into ETH if we’re given the opportunity to buy liquidation based moves (as it’s expected to outperform BTC). If BTC reaches my full target, I will be more aggressive when taking ETH profits as ETH likely is nearing its top alongside BTC.

My target for Ether during this run is $2,400 - $2,500 before any significant pullback. Then we can extend to $2,800 and $3,000 where I aim to take the majority of my profits if there’s enough capital rotation from BTC to lift prices to these levels.

Value Investing Legend Charlie Munger passes away at age 99. R.I.P 💐🪦

Charlie Munger, known for being one of the Greatest Value Investors of All Time and Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway has passed away at Age 99 on the 28th November 2023.

Known for his quick wit and uncanny takes on modern day investing, he has had immeasurable influence on the investing world and helped tens of thousands of institutional, retail and Berkshire investors improve their lives, and take a ‘cheerful pessimistic’ view of the world and investments.

It’s sad to hear of such a legend and his passing, but he’s left with us the knowledge he’s accumulated over the years with quotes, books and interviews.

I recommend reading ‘Poor Charlie’s Almanack’ and reviewing the Berkshire meetings to celebrate his life and take on the knowledge to improve our own investment journeys.

Weekly Opportunity! 📈💰

As BTC breaks past $40,000, capital can begin rotating to high risk Altcoins which we can capitalise on to grow BTC value and outperform the market before the music stops and the next correction comes.

Solana is still holding strong and preparing itself for a test of the recent highs at $68.30. If this level is tested and bulls are in full control, Solana can easy see an impulsive move to $70, then into the $75 - $81 pocket before any sign of exhaustion/resistance.

Optimism is another coin that is expected to perform well in an environment where Altcoins become more risk on. Over the last few weeks, we’ve see buyers step in and accumulate $OP sub $1.77 and any break above this level can cause an impulsive move to $2.0 and eventually the $2.10 level where resistance can be met.

Render is the final coin on my main watch for a continued explosive breakout move above $4.0 and reaching the next resistance level between $4.44 and $4.7. I am still holding a spot position from during the accumulation period and aim to distribute this further once the next resistance levels are met.

$RNDR is one of the top performers this year and I expect will be one of the top performers for the years ahead and even in the next bull cycle. I want to accumulate more of this coin and will add on dips with respect to the trend.

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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