Welcome Everyone to the Twentieth Chronicles DOSE!! 💸

This is a Weekly newsletter aimed for you to receive comprehensive weekly analysis, research reports, and actionable trade ideas covering traditional and crypto markets.

Every week feels like a year in crypto markets with so much to share and catch up on. I hope you find value in these newsletters and add them to your trading regime to maximise your profits! Enjoy!!

The TLDR; 👀

• Crypto markets see $1BN in liquidations as contagion creeps into the crypto markets from TradFi. 📉💸

• Ether and Altcoins see massive moves to the downside on the back of BTC volatility but is the trend still intact?

• Reasons why I’m still bullish during turbulent times and why you should persist in the face of panic. 🧠

• 💡 No market breakdown video this week due to the severity of the crash and we need to release this analysis as fast as possible.

Sentiment Analysis 🧐

This has been one of the most volatile and Extreme Weeks for market sentiment and is the first capitulation that TradFi investors are experiencing since the launch of the BTC and ETH ETFs.

Sentiment started the week Extremely Greedy - hovering around the 74 level as BTC tested the upper counter-trendline resistance and the $70,000 price level. We then saw the rejection and break below back into the range following this move and it gave a clear signal that further downside was expected and coming. As prices continued to slip, we saw sentiment return to 60-50 levels before eventually spiking to 34 and 26 FEAR levels as BTC capitulated below the $60,000 major support level.

Traders shifted in a week from being overly bullish and Greedy in the markets, to now, overly bearish and fearful. Allowing the poised trader to trade the volatility and make money in the chaos.

Right now Sentiment has spiked to Fear (26) levels and potentially we can see Extreme Fear (<20) if we see a final spike lower in BTC and Altcoins. Fear is a time for accumulation and buying, so I am deploying capital at these prices and expecting this to be the final capitulation move lower before we see the next move higher in crypto and risk assets in general.

Crypto has seen the short-term boom and bust cycles and patterns many times and seasoned traders look past the noise and are numb to the portfolio PnL swings. I’m HODLing from the lows and my DCA re-accumulation areas while still remaining patient and letting the market swing how it wants. I will sell again when we see the Extremes of Greed but now is not the time to panic and exit markets entirely off the back of “recession fears”.

Everything has been playing out as expected and if we see BTC recover and hold $60,000. This may be the bottom and last chance to buy crypto at value areas before we see the next markup.

Everything has been playing out per prior DOSES, and we are expected to be on the verge of another BTC breakout that will accelerate prices to new ATHs and beyond. 💰

Bitcoin Weekly Breakdown

Last week we saw a rejection off the range highs of BTC and a downtrend into a market capitulation today that saw billions liquidations from the cryptocurrency market.

Above is a chart of the BTC Daily price action and how I’ve been trading the accumulation range. We saw the ‘Spring’ into the highs of $70,000 on the 31st, then as quickly as we rallied, we fell back to $60,000 major support and more as overlevered traders were forced to sell positions and a cascade occurred.

Now price is trading at $52,500 and below the last low that occurred at $54,000. This is on the back of TradFi contagion as Japanese markets were halted and fell > 8% in a session the USDJPY carry trade starts to be unwound and fears of a global recession are at the front of traders’ minds.

From the prior analysis, we have been expecting downside after a rejection of $70,000 and this hasn’t come as a shock at all. We’ve come back to the lows and value area for BTC, filled the CME gap and the violent drop caused gaps to the upside which is a good indication that now crypto assets are oversold.

I’m now expecting prices to hold steady for a little while markets digest new news and don’t price in uncertainty. We can see a bounce higher from any of these levels as traders who panic sold try and re-buy positions at higher prices however I’d like to see a reclaim of $60,000 to be confident that the bottom is in for the correction and the next parabolic phase is about to start.

Stay alert and stay cautious when trading in these conditions as liquidity is low and leveraged positions get wiped easily. Stick with the basics, accumulate, and don’t let emotions dictate your trading decisions.

Ethereum Weekly Breakdown

Ethereum diverged from BTC this week as we saw the ETF launch occur and the spot products start trading which caused volatility in Ethereum.

The chart above shows that Ether has seen a -40% drop since the launch of the ETFs and a bull trap breakout occurred on the announcement of the ETFs. We’ve seen the price fall below $2,850 and now stall at $2,100 but there is the potential for final dips sub $2,000 if we see further weakness in TradFi markets which can cause contagion in crypto.

Ether is harder to trade due to the lack of clear levels compared to BTC. However, it will move similarly and a bounce in BTC will cause a bounce in ETH. I’m watching for a test and reclaim of $2,850 to remain bullish on ETH and see further upside when we get our BTC breakout to the upside.

Other Altcoins are expected to mirror Ether and the stronger coins are at good value areas which can have hard bounces if we see a recovery in the majors. Opportunities are fleeting and we will have to see how this week pans out to get a better direction on the market and be confident that a bottom has been put in and we can start the next uptrend.

For now, avoid leverage and focus on the majors until we get confirmation that it’s safe to take more risks. Don’t blow up your portfolio this early in the cycle and fail to capture the coming exponential moves. Keep risk tight, manage losses as best as you can, consolidate to quality projects, and don’t make emotional trading decisions.

For now, I expect further surges in Altcoins off the back of Ether's strength and am paying attention to strong Altcoins to catch these moves (SOL, RNDR, potentially MEMES).

Hope you have a safe and profitable trading week! As always, day-by-day updates are provided in the Discord that you can find at the bottom of this DOSE!

That’s a Wrap for this Week! 🌯

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